Producers sometimes consider “reverse psychology”, and think about planting crops that are doing poorly in the expectation that most farmers will avoid those, creating a potential shortfall down the road. This isn’t entirely without merit, although two important things need to be kept in mind. First, the cushion going into the season will help to buffer a potential acreage shortfall. And second, yield swings usually trump shifts in seeded area in terms of the final production outcome. This means that you still need adverse weather to spark the eventual hoped for rally. Also keep in mind Canada’s role in any given market – we can reduce soybean acres all we want, and it hardly moves the global needle. Swings in some crops where we are a dominant player would have a greater influence, both good and bad. Second, long-term demand trends can act as a tailwind for some crops. Demand overall is growing for nearly all grains as world population and standards of living rise. However, the pace of growth can differ considerably. All else being equal, crops with stronger demand growth have a better chance of seeing supplies shrink faster than anticipated during the marketing year. Global vegetable oil and meal consumption is a case in point, where it seems the USDA is perpetually reducing their projected carryout for soybeans as the crop year wears on. Canola consumption also seems to have no trouble using up whatever is grown. A crop such as barley (both feed and malt) doesn’t have the same pace of demand growth behind it. Finally, how patient can you be in selling a crop? Does a good portion need to move in fall, and then steadily throughout the year, to generate the cash needed to operate your business? Or are you able to be patient in making sales, and wait for the right window? Pulse crops are a good example where this factor may come into play for some farms. Global demand growth is solid, but we rely heavily on India as an export market, and their recent policy decisions have badly hurt shipments and prices. It’s possible that eventually these policies get revised, once again opening up key demand. If this coincides with a reduction in pulse acres on the Prairies, buying interest could pick up in the face of smaller supplies. However, the timing of this is uncertain, if it happens at all. Perhaps that is too big a risk if growers are relying on peas and lentils to provide the consistent cash needed to keep the farm running. For those who can wait it out and take on the risk, there is the potential for a favourable outcome. Jonathon Driedger is a senior market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg “Within the range of potential crops that can be planted on a given field, the prospects of making money is a critical part of what ultimately goes in the ground.” —Jonathon Driedger 42 www.seed.ab.ca | Advancing Seed in Alberta Advancing Women Conference West 2018 / Alberta Seed Guide / 7.125”x 4.75” R e g i s t e r t o d a y ! S e a t i n g i s l i m i t e d . LISTEN, LEARN, NETWORK& GROW! HYATT REGENCY CALGARY, MARCH 26 & 27, 2018 Prepare to be inspired. Acquire the life skills you need to reach your goals and live your life to your full potential. Network with women passionate about agriculture. Celebrating our 5th year in Calgary! Register today. Visit advancingwomenconference.ca or phone 403-686-8407. I feel empowered to be a better advocate for my industry and to take our farm to the next level. This conference has been a game changer for me. – Merel V., Salmon Arm, British Columbia