Canada’s principal field crops are heading into a new marketing year with a mix of optimism and caution, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Strong global demand continues to support exports, but mounting trade tensions and softening prices are reshaping the outlook for 2024-25 and 2025-26.
A Strong Year for Exports, but Prices Under Pressure
For the 2024-25 crop year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expects exports of major field crops to grow by 5% compared to the previous year. This rise is being led by robust international demand, particularly for crops like durum, lentils, and canola. However, this export strength is also drawing down domestic inventories—carry-out stocks are projected to decline by 10%.
Despite the buoyant export numbers, crop prices are trending downward. AAFC forecasts notable price declines for most major crops, with the exception of corn, flax, and sunflower seed, which are seeing more favourable market conditions.
Trade Turbulence Looms Over 2025-26
The outlook for the 2025-26 crop year is clouded by new trade developments. Statistics Canada’s March estimate of seeding intentions—based on a survey conducted before the announcement of steep Chinese tariffs on Canadian peas, canola oil, and canola meal—does not yet reflect the impact of these measures. These tariffs, along with potential U.S. trade actions, are expected to have a significant effect on markets, although the full extent remains unclear.
Despite this uncertainty, the total seeded area for field crops is expected to increase slightly, up 0.3% from the previous year. Wheat leads the charge with a 2.6% increase, especially in spring and winter wheat varieties. Meanwhile, oilseed acreage is expected to fall by nearly 2%, driven by declining canola and soybean planting intentions. Pulse and special crops will also see a contraction, with the exception of dry peas, which are forecast to gain ground.
Assuming normal weather and average yields, total crop production is projected to decline slightly. Prices for most crops are expected to continue their downward trend, with a few bright spots—namely wheat, soybeans, flax, and dry beans.
Crop-by-Crop Snapshot
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Durum: A strong export year in 2024-25 has pushed Canadian shipments up 38%, with continued demand from North Africa expected into 2025-26. However, global competition is rising, and Canadian exports are forecast to dip slightly next year. Prices are projected to soften.
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Wheat (excluding durum): Export volumes are down slightly this year, mainly due to declining demand from China, which has boosted its domestic production. In 2025-26, wheat acreage is expected to rise, but exports could continue to face stiff global competition.
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Barley: Supply constraints are weighing on the market in 2024-25, with exports and stocks both forecast to fall. This trend will likely continue into 2025-26 as acreage contracts further. Prices are expected to soften under pressure from U.S. corn prices.
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Oats: Supplies have tightened significantly, sending carry-out stocks to their lowest level in over a decade. While acreage is set to rebound slightly in 2025-26, the overall supply remains constrained and prices are expected to drop to a five-year low.
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Rye: Production and supply are on the rise, with 2025-26 forecast to see the highest rye output since 1990. Despite growing stocks, prices are expected to decline amid abundant supply and lower row crop prices.
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Flaxseed: Supplies are tight and expected to tighten further in 2025-26 as production dips again and carry-in stocks fall. Prices, however, are expected to rise due to strong demand and limited supply.
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Canola: While domestic crushing is reaching record highs, production challenges due to dry conditions are constraining supply. The outlook for 2025-26 is bearish, with trade disruptions and shrinking margins putting downward pressure on prices and export volumes.
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Dry Peas: Exports are facing headwinds from Chinese tariffs and potentially expiring Indian exemptions. While acreage and production are expected to rise in 2025-26, export volumes could drop significantly, pushing carry-out stocks to record highs.
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Lentils: Despite strong export performance this year, falling prices and increased global supply are impacting profitability. Production is set to fall in 2025-26 due to lower seeded area, and prices are expected to decline further.
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Dry Beans: A larger supply has not translated into stronger exports, and prices have weakened. Acreage is forecast to decline in 2025-26, with prices expected to rise slightly as supply tightens.
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Chickpeas: Exports and prices are down amid larger global supplies. While production is expected to decrease next year, high carry-in stocks will keep supply elevated, pressuring prices further.
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Mustard Seed: A sharp cut in seeded area is expected to bring down production significantly in 2025-26. Despite this, burdensome carry-out stocks will continue to weigh on prices.
What to Watch
As farmers prepare for the 2025-26 season, key variables will shape the outlook: the evolving trade landscape—particularly with China and the U.S., who hit one another with significant reciprocal tariffs this week—moisture conditions in key growing regions, and global supply competition. The next AAFC Outlook is scheduled for April 17, with seeded area estimates arriving from Statistics Canada on June 27.
With a complex mix of market forces at play, Canadian growers will be balancing optimism about global demand with the realities of rising input costs, softening prices, and unpredictable trade dynamics.
