A new article from Alberta Grains paints a picture of the future of a cross-border relationship that has long been essential for wheat and barley exports. While uncertainty is nothing new for farmers, this latest challenge has the potential to ripple far beyond the fields.
Since the days when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, Canadian cereals—especially wheat and barley—have flowed south of the border with relative ease, note Shannon Sereda, director, government relations, Policy & Markets and Jasen Aussant, senior policy advisor for Alberta Grains.
In 2024, Canadian wheat exports to the U.S. topped $1 billion. Barley exports added another $100 million. Alberta alone accounted for nearly $288 million in wheat shipments and $44 million in barley.
And the ripple effects? They’re not easy to pin down, but Alberta Grains says they’ll be significant. Higher input and equipment costs, snarled supply chains, rail service disruptions, and falling demand from processors are just the start. Peripheral industries like packaging and logistics are also expected to feel the squeeze.
The U.S. has long leaned on Canadian wheat, particularly for its strong gluten, high protein, and dependable quality, they write. According to Alberta Grains, Canada now supplies roughly 98 per cent of U.S. wheat imports. Despite a sharp drop in American wheat production over the years—down by some 800 million bushels—demand for semolina and wheat flour has only grown. Durum wheat in particular has become a sticking point: U.S. farmers can meet only about 30 per cent of domestic demand for it.
On the flip side, Canada brings in a large volume of U.S. baked goods—$1.3 billion worth in 2023 alone. Meanwhile, Canada sends a sizeable share of the $7.2 billion in bakery products that the U.S. imports. These numbers highlight just how intertwined the two nations have become when it comes to food. Disrupting that flow could have lasting effects.
Barley’s Delicate Balance
Barley presents its own set of complications, they note. Most of the crop grown in Alberta feeds the province’s robust livestock industry. But with Alberta’s cattle and beef exports to the U.S. valued at around $4 billion, any shake-up in barley markets could trigger a chain reaction.
The cattle industries on both sides of the border are deeply linked—live animals frequently move between countries for finishing and processing. But with Canadian herd sizes already at a low not seen since 1988, and feed costs creeping upward, the situation is fragile.
“While both countries have benefited from an interconnected cattle market, (the trade war) could disrupt this balance,” Sereda and Aussant write.
The malted barley sector is also at risk. The U.S. is Canada’s largest buyer, accounting for more than half of malt exports—worth about $307 million. And with $131 million worth of Canadian beer heading to the U.S. each year, much of it brewed from domestic barley, the implications could be widespread. If demand drops, Canadian maltsters may cut back on barley purchases, which would push prices down for farmers.
Looking for a Way Forward
While 93 per cent of beer consumed in Alberta is made locally, Alberta Grains warns that costs could still rise due to supply chain issues, like shortages of aluminum for cans.
The organization is urging governments and industry players to get ahead of the problem. Its message: invest in trade diversification, attract more processing capacity at home, and improve logistics and infrastructure to reduce reliance on any one trade route. Right now, shipping goods within Canada—from west to east—is more expensive than sending them south, which puts Western farmers at a disadvantage.
“Alberta’s crop sector cannot afford to be collateral damage,” the article states, pointing to ongoing market volatility in places like China. With so much uncertainty ahead, Alberta Grains says farmers need more than just resilience—they need a plan.
