From canola to cattle to caution, Jon Neutens of ATB Financial explains what trade turmoil means for you.
While farmers got some good news recently regarding tariffs under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), broader trade tensions continue to create uncertainty for Canadian agriculture. According to Jon Neutens of ATB Financial, the absence of new tariffs on Canadian agricultural products headed to the U.S. is welcome news — but it’s not the end of the story.
“Everything under CUSMA is okay, and we’re good to go. From that respect, there weren’t additional tariffs added to agricultural products,” says Neutens, vice-president and head of agriculture at ATB. “So we’re in decent shape in ag, but the broader tariffs the U.S. has placed on the rest of the world still leave a lot of uncertainty.”
Those “reciprocal” tariffs that were placed on the rest of the world have been paused for 90 days, it was announced on April 9 — except for the tariffs placed on China. However, the uncertainty Neutens speaks of isn’t just a political talking point — it has real implications for farmers here at home. Market prices, input costs, and global demand can all shift quickly, depending on how trade relations evolve.
“Even without new tariffs, we’ve seen declining commodity prices in the grain and oilseed sector,” says Neutens. “Margins are tightening, and producers are feeling that.”
Tariffs Can Ripple Through the Value Chain
Neutens notes that tariffs — even if not directly imposed on Canadian farm goods — can affect demand, prices, and ultimately the bottom line for producers.
“Tariffs on exported agricultural goods reduce demand, and that hits prices,” he says. “Whether it’s canola or beef, if demand drops, market prices drop, and so does the price paid to the producer.”
Case in point: China still has tariffs in place on Canadian canola meal and oil, although not on seed.
“Most of what we send to China is canola seed, which helps, but there’s still lost value on the processed side. The question is whether that reduced demand will trickle down and affect the price of canola overall.”
The beef sector, too, narrowly avoided a major blow.
“If tariffs had been imposed on live cattle, it would have caused significant challenges. Canada exports a lot of live cattle to the U.S. daily. That threat alone led to a surge in forward selling and early cross-border movement of cattle earlier this year.”
Diversification Is Key
For producers looking to navigate trade tensions and volatile markets, Neutens recommends a diversified approach — both at the farm level and throughout the broader agri-food sector.
“Our agricultural sector has always been resilient and has come a long way in terms of diversification,” he says. “That might mean adding value to what you produce, or even shifting your production mix based on current market signals.”
As an example, Neutens points to opportunities created by U.S.–China trade tensions.
“If China buys fewer U.S. soybeans, they might increase canola seed imports from Canada, even with the tariffs on oil and meal. That could be a market opportunity, especially for Western Canadian growers.”
Still, he cautions that producers should weigh agronomic realities and long-term strategy before making any major shifts.
Support from ATB Financial
ATB Financial is aiming to help producers weather these turbulent times. With a dedicated agricultural team, the bank has been building tailored support programs for decades.
“We’ve built a team 100% focused on agriculture,” says Neutens. “Not only do we understand what’s going on in the markets, but we also design our products to help clients through tough stretches.”
Some of ATB’s offerings include payment deferral options — not just for principal, but also interest in some cases — giving producers flexibility when cash flow gets tight.
“If you’re facing a trade-related challenge or just need support managing through volatility, we’ve got programs in place to help.”
Farmers looking to learn more can visit the ATB website.
