Vegetation growth index as of the week July 26, 2021 compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Western Canada. Photo: Statistics Canada
Wheat and canola production and yields are predicted to drop substantially this year due to the drought which has hit Western Canada throughout the growing season, the July production of principal field crops report from Statistics Canada says.
Nationally, Statistics Canada is predicting Canadian farmers will harvest less wheat and canola. Lower production has been driven largely by ongoing drought conditions in Western Canada, which could decrease yields, the report notes.
“Farmers across Western Canada have had to contend with a lack of rain and higher-than-average temperatures throughout the growing season. This has exacerbated soil moisture conditions, which were already low at the start of the year. These factors have negatively impacted crop growth and yield potential across much of the Prairies.”
Wheat production nationally is predicted to fall by 34.8 per cent from last year to 22.9 million tonnes with yields dropping 28.7 per cent to 37.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area is also expected to fall 8.5 per cent to 22.7 million acres. In Alberta wheat yield is predicted to drop 41 per cent to 32.9 bushels per acre, harvested area down seven per cent and production down 45.2 per cent to 6.1 million tonnes.
“The decrease in wheat area was largely attributable to spring wheat, which in addition to having less seeded area in 2021, has been impacted by drought conditions in Western Canada,” the release says.
Statistics Canada is expecting nationally canola production will drop 24.3 per cent to 14.7 million tonnes. The report notes drought conditions are pushing yields to their lowest level in a decade which will offset a projected 8.1 per cent higher harvested area. If this does come to fruition, Statistics Canada notes it will be the lowest canola production since 2012.
In Alberta, canola production is expected to fall 14 per cent to 4.5 million tonnes while yields will drop 25.9 per cent to 29.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area though will be 16 per cent higher at 6.6 million acres.
The Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) shows overall plant health in Western Canada was lower to much lower than normal, having decreased considerably throughout the month of July, the report notes. An assessment of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves, which are a measure of plant health, indicated that in almost all parts of the Prairies, crops reached peak health well ahead of normal. In some instances, peak NDVI occurred up to four weeks earlier, before decreasing rapidly as a lack of moisture and high temperatures took a toll on plant health.
“This is the first time since 1987, when Statistics Canada began monitoring crop conditions using coarse resolution satellite images, that NDVI curves have peaked so early in the growing season. The CCAP also indicates that dry conditions have impacted almost all of Western Canada,” the report says.
Production estimates are based on satellite technology. Final harvested area estimates for the 2021 growing season will be release on Dec. 3, 2021.
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