It’s been a dry start to 2025 across much of Alberta, and the latest crop outlook from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada confirms what many farmers already feel: we’re heading into another uncertain year.
As of March 31, about 32% of Prairie farmland was classified as abnormally dry or in drought. That number keeps creeping up — it was 23% in February and 26% in January. For Alberta farmers, that’s a red flag going into seeding.
Despite the tough conditions, AAFC expects total seeded area in Canada to rise a bit this year. But production could dip slightly, depending on what kind of spring and summer we get. Prices for most crops are expected to decline, though there are a few bright spots.
Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening — and what Alberta growers should watch this season.
Wheat: Still the Backbone
Spring wheat remains strong. Alberta is leading the way in Canadian wheat acres, and AAFC says total wheat area across Canada (excluding durum) will rise 3% this year.
Prices for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS 1, 13.5%) are expected to rise to $300/tonne next crop year, up from $280 this year. That’s thanks to tight global supplies and strong milling demand from countries like China, Indonesia, and Japan.
Production is expected to hold steady, but tight carry-in stocks mean supply will be a little lower. Exports are projected at 20.9 million tonnes, slightly down from this year but still 8% above the five-year average.
Takeaway: Wheat is a reliable bet this year — especially with steady demand for high-quality Canadian grain and a potential price lift.
Barley: Pulling Back
Alberta is Canada’s barley powerhouse — but even here, the crop is under pressure. Seeded area is forecast to fall in Alberta and Manitoba, with only Saskatchewan increasing.
Barley production is expected to drop to 8.1 million tonnes, the lowest in years. Carry-out stocks will fall by 32% this year to just 0.8 million tonnes, a near-record low. That’s despite strong domestic use — about 5.7 million tonnes, mostly for feed.
Still, prices aren’t responding. Feed barley in Lethbridge is expected to average $285/tonne next year, down $10 from this year. The price hit is largely due to lower U.S. corn prices, which are putting a ceiling on feed values.
Takeaway: Barley margins will be tight. Consider rotation alternatives if you’re not locked into feed contracts.
Canola: Holding Its Own, But Not Without Risk
Canola crush hit record levels in 2024-25, with 11.5 million tonnes processed thanks to strong meal and oil demand. But Alberta yields took a hit from heat and drought last summer, and supply is tightening across the board.
Seeded area is expected to stay mostly flat — around 8.8 million hectares nationally — but lower carry-in stocks mean supply will drop 6% year-over-year.
The forecast price is $670/tonne, up from this year but still volatile. AAFC warns that global trade disputes, renewable fuel policy changes, and Chinese tariffs could all impact canola markets moving forward.
Takeaway: Crush demand is solid, but keep a close eye on export trends and spring moisture conditions.
Corn and Pulses: Not Alberta’s Focus — But Still Relevant
Corn acreage is up slightly in Manitoba and Ontario, while domestic use in Canada is declining. Exports are growing, but prices are forecast to drop to $215/tonne.
Pulses like peas and lentils face stiff headwinds due to tariffs from India and China. Exports are expected to fall, and carry-out stocks will climb. That means lower prices across the board, especially for yellow peas and red lentils. Lentils, for example, are forecast to drop from $815/tonne to $730 next year.
Takeaway: If you’re considering pulses, be cautious. Global demand is shaky, and prices may not hold.
Other Crops Worth Watching
-
Oats: Supply is tight and prices are sliding. Seeded area in Alberta will rise slightly, but returns are expected to fall again next year.
-
Flax: Seeded area is at record lows. Prices are forecast to rise to $700/tonne, but it’s a niche play with limited upside unless global demand improves.
-
Rye: Seeded area is way up across the Prairies, but so are stocks. Prices are forecast to fall to $180/tonne, an eight-year low.
Final Word: Plan Smart, Stay Nimble
The 2025-26 season is shaping up to be a mixed bag. Wheat and canola are holding their ground, but barley and pulses are under pressure. The climate wildcard — especially drought — remains a major factor in Alberta’s outlook.
Bottom line: know your costs, lock in early where it makes sense, and keep your eye on export trends and local moisture conditions.
