Canadian farmers are expected to produce less wheat and canola compared to 2022 due to lower yields from dry conditions in Western Canada, the model-based principal field crop estimates for July 2023 from Statistics Canada said.
Throughout much of the Prairies lower-than-average precipitation and high temperatures have resulted in poorer crop conditions than in 2022, the release noted. The Crop Condition Assessment Program indicated overall plant health in the Prairie provinces was lower- to much lower-than-normal at the end of July, indicating the possibility of lower- to much lower-than-normal yields.
“An assessment of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index curves, which are a measure of plant health, indicated that crops reached peak health ahead of normal. In most parts of the Prairies, crops reached peak health several weeks ahead of normal crop development, before decreasing rapidly as a lack of moisture and high temperatures took a toll on plant health,” the release said.
Wheat production is predicted to decrease by 14.2 per cent year over year to 29.5 million tonnes in 2023. The release noted the decrease is due to lower yields, which are expected to fall by 18.6 per cent to 41.2 bushels per acre because of dry conditions across the Prairies, offsetting higher anticipated harvested area, which is expected to rise 5.6 per cent to 26.3 million acres.
The anticipated decrease in total wheat production is mainly due to spring wheat, which is expected to fall by 14.5 per cent to 22.1 million tonnes. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to fall by 19.9 per cent to 42.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to increase 6.9 per cent to 19.1 million acres, the release said. Durum wheat harvested area is expected to decrease 1.5 per cent to 5.8 million acres, while yields are anticipated to fall 25.3 pre cent to 26.8 bushels per acre causing lower anticipated durum wheat production.
For Alberta wheat production is projected to decrease by 16.2 per cent to 9.5 million tonnes, compared with 2022, the result of lower anticipated yields which will be offset higher harvested area up 3.1 per cent to 7.7 million acres.
National canola production is predicted to fall by 6.1 per cent to 17.6 million tonnes in 2023. The anticipated decrease in production is due to lower yields, which are expected to fall 8.8 per cent to 35.4 bushels per acre, while harvested area will increase three per cent to 21.9 million acres. For Alberta, canola production is predicted to fall 1.2 per cent to 5.5 million tonnes, the release said. The decrease is the result of lower anticipated harvested area offset by a 1.8 per cent increase in yield to 38.8 bushels per acre.
The estimates were based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
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